Ice core evidence for a 20th century decline in sea ice in the Bellingshausen Sea, Antarctica

first_imgThis study uses ice core methanesulphonic acid (MSA) records from the Antarctic Peninsula, where temperatures have been warming faster than anywhere else in the Southern Hemisphere, to reconstruct the 20th century history of sea ice change in the adjacent Bellingshausen Sea. Using satellite-derived sea ice and meteorological data, we show that ice core MSA records from this region are a reliable proxy for regional sea ice change, with years of increased winter sea ice extent recorded by increased ice core MSA concentrations. Our reconstruction suggests that the satellite-observed sea ice decline in the Bellingshausen Sea during recent decades is part of a long-term regional trend that has occurred throughout the 20th century. The long-term perspective on sea ice in the Bellingshausen Sea is consistent with evidence of 20th century warming on the Antarctic Peninsula and may reflect a progressive deepening of the Amundsen Sea Low due to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations and, more recently, stratospheric ozone depletion. As a first-order estimate, our MSA-based reconstruction suggests that sea ice in the Bellingshausen Sea has retreated southward by ~0.7° during the 20th century. Comparison with other 20th century sea ice observations, reconstructions, and model simulations provides a coherent picture of Antarctic sea ice decline during the 20th century, although with regional-scale differences evident in the timing and magnitude of this sea ice decline. This longer-term perspective contrasts with the small overall increase in Antarctic sea ice that is observed in post-1979 satellite data.last_img read more

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A View from the Road: The Network Edge

first_imgFollowing a long trip to Australia in which I had the opportunity to visit with Telstra, and be fortunate enough to offer a keynote on Transforming Communications Service Provider Infrastructure at the Telstra Product Engineering Technology Symposium, I am reflecting on the many opportunities to drive innovation, internally to Dell EMC and externally in the telecommunications industry. I’ve given keynotes and expressed my own personal and professional views on how the industry will evolve, the core technologies driving that evolution, and both a look back at how far we’ve come in driving network virtualization and software programmability and lament how far we still have to go to enable operational transformation.For me, the Telstra Symposium this week was not about reflection or looking at the challenges still facing the telecommunications industry. It was a celebration of innovation – an opportunity to navigate through the tactile Internet and marvel at rows of drones modified to communicate over cellular networks and robots interacting with people in real-time, to watch artificial intelligence put into practice, video evolved, and virtual reality becoming real. What was unique about this experience is that it was not a massive tradeshow, with all of the marketing and polish of live demonstrations, but instead over 40 teams engineering and sharing their creations alongside Dell EMC and 20 other industry partners.At the center of all of this transformation was perhaps the most inconspicuous enabler of all of these experiences – the network edge demonstrations. We, as an industry, have wrestled with the nomenclature quite a bit – we call it Fog Computing or Central Office Re-Architected as a Datacenter (CORD) or Multi-Access Edge Computing (MEC) – but the objective is the same – to enable the next generation set of services that are real-time, data-intensive, interactive, and video-rich by moving network services and applications closer to the access networks, on a virtualized platform optimized for the network edge.What Does This Network Edge Platform Look Like?I hear this question quite a bit – what does the network edge platform look like? More importantly, what does “optimized for the network edge” mean?At its foundation, the network edge platform is a combination of compute /storage/ networking, cloud technologies and network virtualization technologies, delivered in a way that accounts for the most pertinent characteristics of the edge itself:As part of the network, the edge has to take on characteristics similar to other network facilities, from the customer premise and backhaul aggregation facilities to Points of Presence (PoPs) and regional data centers.Network workloads, such as Virtual Network Functions (VNFs), will reside on the network edge platform, but not in the same way that we are seeing NFV being instantiated today – we will see both the platform and functions get disaggregated.Enabled by a combination of containers and virtual machines, the network edge platform will rely on controllers and schedulers that are no longer geographically co-located with the data processing nodes.The functions, as microservices, will split into control planes, user / data planes, and state machines, allowing for independent optimization and scaling techniques to be applied. In short, network functions become two-tiered applications (front-end, back-end).The user / data planes will be enabled through increased accelerators, both those residing in server platforms, such as FPGAs and Smart NICs, and through SDN-enabled merchant silicon and programmable ASICs.Dell EMC Telstra Symposium demonstration – SD-WAN, Lean PoPs and network edge platformWhat Does This Mean?To me, it means that searching to understand whether the network edge lives simultaneously in the network and the cloud. Attempting to operationalize the network edge in only one does a great injustice to the other. The network edge is a domain in and of itself, and should be treated as such.At the conference, I had the chance to see Dell EMC architects and Telstra engineers both emphasize the innovation happening at the network edge, with technologies such as “Lean PoPs”, mobile CORD (M-CORD), multi-cloud and multi-domain orchestration. These demonstrations weren’t the flashiest and didn’t gather the largest crowds, but in the future, when I am connecting to a 5G network to communicate with things that are communicating with other things autonomously, I am certain that the experience will be enabled by innovations at the network edge.last_img read more

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KLP backs Rwanda with solar investment

first_imgNorway’s largest pension fund manager KLP has funded the construction of a solar farm in Rwanda, its first investment in the east African state.The project, located to the east of the nation’s capital Kigali, is the first utility-scale, grid-connected commercial solar park in east Africa, costing $23.7m (€20.3m)KLP part-funded the project through KLP Norfund Investments (KNI), a vehicle jointly owned by Norfund, the Norwegian government’s investment fund for developing countries. KNI was set up in 2013, in KLP’s case to increase its impact investments.KNI is a majority owner of the park through its partnership with Scatec Solar, an integrated independent solar power producer which will oversee its operation. KNI owns 24% of the equity, Norfund 12.8% and Scatec Solar 43.2%, while the developers Gigawatt Global own 20%. Further funding has come via debt and grants from international development agencies.Eli Bleie Munkelien, vice president, corporate responsibility and corporate governance, KLP, said: “We see energy as key to development, and renewable energy equally essential for a sustainable development.“Our co-investment with Norfund is commercially based, but with the aim on giving returns on a social and environmental level, as well as the financial dimension.”By end-2014 KLP had invested NOK200m (€21.9m) in four renewable energy projects, the largest being the Lake Turkana wind project in Kenya, as well as solar parks in South Africa and Honduras.Another NOK300m had also been allocated – NOK150m through NorFinance in bank and finance projects, so far in Kenya, Uganda and Mozambique, while the remaining NOK150m is awaiting allocation in new investment opportunities through KNI.Last December, a further NOK500m was committed to investments in renewable energy, though it has not yet been allocated. KLP is currently looking into the different possibilities with regard to the preferred type of impact, partnerships and models.KLP has also invested NOK97m in the Norwegian Microfinance Initiative which funds microfinance institutions in developing countries through equity, loans and guarantees intended to provide an attractive financial return as well as development results.All these investments are defined by KLP as impact investments.Munkelien said: “We use three tools to ensure KLP’s responsible investments: exclusion; active ownership, or dialogue; and investment for sustainable development.“The last of these is what most people consider to be impact investing, though we have a broader definition.”She added: “Given KLP’s investment model, which emphasises index tracking management, KLP seeks partners to put this mandate into operation.”There is no target allocation for impact investment. But sustainable developments in developing economies form an important part of the renewable energy asset class.However, Munkelien said: “There is a target return for impact investments, which vary from project to project. However, they are measured in environmental and social impact as well as financial returns. It is however too early to report on financial returns as they are long-term investments.”KLP’s investment portfolio is worth NOK368bn, with KLP Group’s total assets standing at NOK470bn.For more on impact investing, see IPE’s recent coveragelast_img read more

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Rosenior praises Tigers style

first_img The Tigers looked down and out heading into the weekend on a six-match winless streak but six points from games against Crystal Palace and Liverpool have lifted them four points clear of the drop zone. And defender Rosenior insists his side’s class is starting to tell through the manner in which they have set about extricating themselves from an increasingly ominous position in the bottom three. Liam Rosenior believes Hull are on course to stay up in style after back-to-back wins gave their Barclays Premier League survival prospects a mighty boost. Press Associationcenter_img He said: “It’s not just that we have won the games but the style in which we have won the games. “When you’re under pressure and down there, teams tend to kick and fight and scrap out a 1-0 win. But the performance levels and the way we played bodes well for the future. “It’s not just down to character. We have a lot of quality players here and I’m delighted they have been able to show under such extreme pressure what good players they are.” Despite finding themselves in an eminently more healthy position thanks to Michael Dawson’s 36th-minute winner against Brendan Rodgers’ men, Rosenior acknowledged his side still have plenty of work to do to avoid the drop. Three of the Tigers’ last four games are at home – but two of those are against Arsenal and Manchester United, with the Gunners next to visit the KC Stadium on Monday. Rosenior added: “There is still work to do and it’s not over yet, but we have gone a long way to maintaining our status. There are no days off – we need to keep being professional to make sure we stay in the league. “These are all lads who have been in the Championship and know how hard it is to get out of it. It’s great for us that we have got that motivation and hopefully if we can get a few more points, we will be staying in the Premier League.” Tigers boss Steve Bruce has seen his side’s hopes further boosted by an easing of the club’s injury list, with Mohamed Diame and Andy Robertson both expected to return to play a further part in the run-in. Rosenior himself – a last-minute substitute for the impressive Dame N’Doye against Liverpool – has battled back from four months out with a hamstring injury as he looks to end a difficult personal campaign on a high. “Four months out has been frustrating because I’ve always wanted to play and be a part of things here,” he added. “But as long as we stay in the Premier League, maybe I can kick on next season.” last_img read more

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Art of the sneakerhead: Warriors’ Alfonzo McKinnie shares his obsession

first_imgWarriors forward Alfonzo Mckinnie is well-traveled. And well-kicked.Prior to signing a guaranteed deal with Golden State this season, McKinnie played for six teams across the globe, including a stint in Luxembourg, in which he estimates he brought 15 pairs of sneakers along.“I packed a big duffel full of shoes,” he said. On the latest edition of “Lo’ Wants to Know” McKinnie chronicles those travels through his love for sneakers during a recent trip to PRSTG sneaker shop in …last_img read more

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4 Ways Early Stage CTOs Can Learn to Roll With the Punches

first_imgThere’s always a tinge of “TBD” that accompanies the role of an early stage startup CTO.There’s a reason the position comes with that “up in the air” feeling. Early stage companies can’t immediately hire someone with the tech and executive know-how needed to handle the job. Most startups appoint a lead developer or some other tech go-to as the CTO and then ask him or her to juggle any number of responsibilities — sometimes simultaneously.In some instances, the CTO is a chief engineer who takes a hands-on approach to product development; other times; a CTO is a VP of engineering who is charged with hiring a team and designing the processes and culture necessary to turn business needs into deployed products. And then there are instances when a CTO serves as a startup’s technological “face,” explaining the evolving tech landscape and the company’s “secret sauce” to customers, investors, and the press.On any given day, a startup CTO will fill any one — or all — of these roles. He or she will then be asked to act as a product manager, designer, board member, or salesperson on top of that. Young companies have to run lean, so it shouldn’t be a surprise that startup CTOs face high expectations.Startup CTOs must be able to anticipate and balance myriad duties while still focusing on the pressing and evolving concerns that threaten the survival of their organizations.Putting the Startup CTO Role Into WordsFor most startups, the first significant milestone is shipping a minimally viable product. Until that happens, sales can’t demo, marketing can’t measure conversions, and customers definitely can’t make a purchase.CTOs are invaluable to any early-stage startup’s go-to-market plan. Even with lean approaches like paper prototypes and market conversion testing, the rubber meets the road when developers begin to build that first shippable version.CTOs have specialized expertise on which CEOs, managers, and other leaders rely. CEOs can’t build systems, select DevOps frameworks, code, or evaluate and hire engineers to run an agile product management process. Managing these variables is part of the job for a CTO.As a CTO, however, you should be able to recognize your strengths, acknowledge your weaknesses, and delegate when possible.Although there’s no step-by-step guide on how to navigate a startup’s early months, here are a few hard-earned juggling lessons I’ve learned:1. Step up by stepping back.To find balance, first separate your additional responsibilities into two categories: internal and external. Both will include a lot of tasks that you probably haven’t anticipated.Internally, you’re the company’s technical guru who can handle anything from a QuickBooks installation to the beginning stages of product development and management. Don’t be surprised when you learn there’s no one else around to set up G Suite calendaring and payroll software integrations! At the same time, most developers-turned-CTOs haven’t built a team from scratch and don’t have a thoughtful plan for defining culture, recruiting and interviewing, or creating a diverse workplace.Externally, team members will quickly pull you into unfamiliar scenarios such as contract negotiations, stock option planning, press appearances, or fundraising meetings. Investors aren’t dummies, and shortly after buying into a CEO’s vision, they’ll want to meet the technical leader who’s executing that vision.Segmenting these tasks fosters conversations about leveraging strengths, filling in gaps, and prioritizing responsibilities. And considering the never-ending list of early-stage CTO duties, you’ll be better off with less on your plate.2. Be open with your management team.As a CTO, most of your role is a mystery to your partners. They might secretly worry about everything. Let them know where you’re confident and what concerns you. Keeping them in the loop about challenges and fears builds trust, which is the most valuable currency on any startup team.As my startup, Thumb, rapidly scaled, we were racing to transition from MySQL to MongoDB. But when we first flipped the switch, our mobile app screeched to a halt. The app was riddled with bugs about which our users were eager to complain.When the CEO asked me what was going on and how to fix it, I got defensive. It took him pressing the discussion for me to understand that he didn’t even know what our options were. Once I told him about our possible courses of action, he was able to offer perspective and support. By being open about what I did and didn’t know, we built a rapport that allowed us to solve this — and other future problems — together.3. Make great approaches your own.Tech teams have great instincts for leveraging open-source software packages and SaaS tools. But we know better than to waste time reinventing undifferentiated code, so it’s essential to find ways to add your own wrinkles to proven strategies.But don’t let those instincts stop at tech decisions — put a personal stamp on every process. Find products you admire, and investigate what tech stack the teams behind them are using. Examine designs you love, and shamelessly try to hire their designers. Ask any founders you meet how they are diversifying their developer recruiting pipeline. Design an intentional culture with inspiration from culture decks like Netflix, Spotify, or HubSpot.4. Don’t be a blocker.With all the responsibilities of a CTO, there’s a risk of you becoming a bottleneck. Build processes that take you off the critical path and empower your team, but never just for the sake of process. Get to the root of the problem with your own “5 Whys” analysis if things are getting hung up.Talk with your team about what is and isn’t working. Help all team members see around the corners. After those discussions, collaborate to figure out the fix and how you’ll measure the impact of process improvements. When prioritizing your time, always start with what’s impeding your team’s progress.The sheer bandwidth that comes with being an early stage startup CTO can be daunting. Deal with that uncertainty by putting processes in place to ensure you’re ready for whatever tech issues your startup throws at you next. Will Koffel leads the Google Cloud Startup Program in the Americas and is an experienced startup founder, CTO, and advisor. Koffel served as the CTO of Qwiklabs before it was purchased by Google. Will KoffelHead of Startup Ecosystems, Google Cloud, Americas How OKR’s Completely Transformed Our Culture Tags:#coding#cto#Devops#Engineering#Management#startups What Nobody Teaches You About Getting Your Star… China and America want the AI Prize Title: Who … Related Posts How to Get Started in China and Have Successlast_img read more

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Lady Antebellum Grants Wishes To Seven Fans In Seven Days

first_imgLady Antebellum launched 7FOR7 last week, a week-long campaign where the band travels across the country to surprise and fulfill seven wishes for seven fans in seven days.The special endeavor preceded the release of their fifth studio album 747 available in stores now.The campaign started last Monday, when Lady A popped up in Miami, FL on their way to New York City and surprised South Miami Elementary Expressive Arts Center teacher Vivian Gonzales. The trio snuck into the music teacher’s classroom and surprised her with an instrument donation for the school with the help of friends at Little Kids Rock. Lady A also invited Gonzales and her husband on an all-expense paid vacation to New York City to attend the group’s album release show at Gramercy Theatre. Gonzales was nominated by her husband who describes her as a “a great wife, an amazing mom and a phenomenal music teacher” who “spends her days, nights and weekends coming up with lessons to engage every student she has in the world of music, and change their lives forever.”The following day, during their appearance on Today, Lady Antebellum surprised nursing student Katharine Laventis, who lost both her parents at a young age and is now paying her own way through school. Laventis, who was in the crowd under the pretense that she and a friend had won free tickets to the taping, was recognized and pulled up on stage by the band during their on-air interview. The trio then completely shocked Laventis with their announcement that they would be setting up a scholarship with American International College to help offset the cost of her tuition.On Wednesday, Lady Antebellum stuck around the city to surprise 9-year-old New Jersey native Kate Koval during her trip into Manhattan today. Koval was taken in by her grandparents as a baby after her parents died, and then adopted by her aunt after the death of her grandmother. Shortly after she moved in, she and her aunt lost their home in Superstorm Sandy. Koval’s aunt, who nominated her for the surprise, took her niece on a visit to the American Girl Store in NYC where she was told she’d be given her own special doll. Much to her surprise, the trio walked out with the doll in hand to present to Koval, in addition to announcing that they will be providing a year’s worth of groceries with the help of Crock-Pot Slow Cookers.For the fourth day, Lady Antebellum hopped on over to Fort Meade, Maryland to surprise Carrie Warfel, an army wife and mother of four who tirelessly takes great care of everyone around her. Warfel was nominated by her sister, but everyone on the army base says she is a true hero who selflessly puts everyone else’s needs before her own, including a family whose daughter has cancer. Lady Antebellum snuck onto the military base where Warfel’s husband is stationed to throw her a surprise party and treated her to an indulgent day at the spa. On top of that, the trio shocked her even more with a trip for two to the 2015 ACM Awards and a Polaris for her husband.On day five, Lady Antebellum took their 7FOR7 project back home today with a stop in Nashville, TN to surprise nurse and single mother, Kelly Blackburn. Blackburn diligently works 12-hour night shifts without complaining in order to provide for her young daughter and give her the best life possible. Lady Antebellum recognized Blackburn’s sacrifice and decided to surprise her with a fun lunch in downtown Nashville with all of her friends, including the trio themselves. On top of that, they gifted her with an assortment of amazing experiences: VIP tickets to Lady A’s New Year’s Eve show including a luxurious hotel stay, a CMA Mega Prize Pack for this year’s CMA Awards, tickets to the 2015 CMA Music Festival, one-year admission passes to the Nashville Zoo plus several other local attractions to enjoy with her daughter, and much more.Lady Antebellum spent day six of their 7FOR7 project in Perry, GA surprising newly engaged Alexis Wonais, who was nominated by her fiance Jordan, who wanted to do something special for her. While the couple was having lunch in downtown Perry, the band came in singing an acapella version of “I Run To You” and invited them to be VIP guests at their show that night at the Georgia National Fair. On top of that, the trio announced they would be covering the bride-to-be’s wedding gown and bridesmaid dresses, in addition to a 5-night honeymoon at the all-inclusive Hard Rock Hotel Riviera Maya in Mexico.And finally, on day seven, Lady Antebellum made a wish come true in Music City today for 22-year-old Shelby Parker, a journalism major at CSU Bakersfield with aspirations to become an entertainment journalist in Nashville. The group surprised Parker by taking her to Country Weekly and securing her a mentorship with the reputable magazine’s Editor-in-Chief so that she could begin to pursue her dream career. They also granted her a red-carpet interview, complete with brand new laptop and camera, for the premiere of the new movie “Best Of Me,” for which the trio wrote and recorded the track “I Did With You.”last_img read more

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Bono Debuts Vision Over Visibility Sunglass Collection

first_imgEyewear brand Revo has debuted a new capsule collection of sunglasses in collaboration with U2 lead singer and activist Bono as part of the Buy Vision, Give Sight campaign to prevent vision impairment and blindness in more than 5 million people by 2020.Video: Buy Vision Give SightRevo will donate $10 from the sale of every pair of Revo sunglasses, including Bono’s “Vision over Visibility” collection, up to a total of $10 million to the “Buy Vision, Give Sight” initiative. These funds will go to the Brien Holden Vision Institute who work around the world to provide eye care to those who cannot access or afford it.“This is personal for me. I’ve been dealing with glaucoma for 20 years,” says Bono in an exclusive video released today. “The Brien Holden Vision Institute is leading the fight to end the kind of blindness and vision problems that can be prevented or cured. They now have an ally in Revo, and me.” He goes on to explain that without the medical care he has received, he would be blind.An estimated 625 million people worldwide are blind or vision impaired simply because they cannot afford, or access basic eye exams and a pair of glasses. According to the Brien Holden Vision Institute, almost 75 percent of all vision impairments can be prevented or cured with proper access to preventative eye care and treatment.Yehuda Shmidman, CEO of Sequential Brands Group, the owner of the Revo brand, comments, “Revo’s pioneering lens technology has always put eye health as a central focus and Bono’s new collection is no exception. Our partnership with Bono and the Brien Holden Vision Institute supercharges our efforts and will help reach more people, in more places, much faster.”A leader in expanding access to eye care in the developing world, Brien Holden Vision Institute will use the funds to provide eye care services, including eye tests and prescription glasses, and to build sustainable eye care services where they currently do not exist by training local people to provide eye care and detect eye diseases.“Most of us take basic eye exams for granted but millions of people around the world cannot access or afford them,” says Kovin Naidoo, CEO of the Brien Holden Vision Institute. “We are committed to changing that.”“The scope of the problem is huge, but the path to progress is also in plain sight. We know we can end vision impairment and unnecessary blindness for millions of people. We also know that you can help,” says Bono in the video.last_img read more

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Happy Birthday Nadal Youre Probably Too Old to Pass Federer

Note the drop-off as players enter their 30s. Only 10.3 percent of majors have been won after age 29 and a mere 3.3 percent after age 31. In tennis, the “wrong side of 30” is a harsh place to be.If we consider only retired players (keeping active players skews the distribution younger), the mean champion age is 25.16.3The aging profiles for both Nadal and Federer have closely paralleled the typical one. We can see this by combining their grand slam titles and looking at the distribution by age. Using their exact ages upon winning, this works out to an average age of 24.57 for a title win, a little below the retired champion average of 25.16, with room to increase if either win subsequent titles. This places Nadal nearly three years past his prime. And Federer is ancient at 32!The only players older than Federer to win a major were Andrés Gimeno, who won the 1972 French Open at 34, and the ageless Ken Rosewall, who won majors at 33 (’68 French), 35 (’70 U.S.), 36 (’71 Australian) and 37 (’72 Australian). Agassi won the 2003 Aussie just shy of Federer’s age (32 years, 9 months). With only six of 184 titles won by players 32 or older since 1968, it’s clear that Federer’s window is closing fast.So, who finishes with more hardware? Let’s first determine how good each player is relative to prior champions at their respective ages. We’ll determine a player’s age-adjusted performance ratio as the number of championships won through his age divided by the majors won by the average champion. For example, through age 27, Nadal has won 13 majors, while the average champion that age had won 2.43.4All figures here are rounded to two places of significance, but the full numbers were used in the calculations. The result is the same. Dividing Nadal’s wins by this average, we get a performance ratio of 5.35. To determine the expected additional titles we’d expect Nadal to win, we can take the product of this multiplier and the average champ’s wins after age 28 — 0.65 —  for a total of 3.48, yielding Nadal a projected total of 16.48 titles, just a tad bit short of Roger’s current 17.We can use the same methodology to calculate Federer’s total projected career majors. With two of the season’s four majors remaining before his 33rd birthday, we’ll declare him as effectively 32.5 years old. We’ll take his 17 titles divided by the 2.96 won by the average champ through age 32.5 to get a performance ratio of 5.74. As the average player can expect 0.13 majors won after 32.5, Federer’s projected career titles is 17 + (5.74 * 0.13) = 17.75.To determine the likelihood Nadal passes Fed, we’ll need to determine the range of championships he’s likely to win. We can use the binomial theorem5The binomial theorem is a powerful tool used for calculating the probability of k events occurring over N trials, given the probability, p, of success in a single trial. It allows us to take, for example, Nadal’s future probability of winning k = 3 additional tournaments over N = 40 trials (10 years at championship level times 4 tourneys per year), given that he has an average probability of winning p = 8.55 percent of tournaments entered. This yields a probability, P, of 22.61 percent.Further reading on binomial distributions can be found here. A binomial calculator can be found at Stattrek. to help us.During the Open era, winners have ranged from age 17 to 37. Hence, based on the age curve, Nadal has 10 years left at championship contention level. With four tourneys per year, he’s got 40 remaining opportunities to win. As we saw earlier, the average retired champ won 0.65 titles from 28 on, reflecting a win probability per tourney of 1.63 percent.Multiplying by Rafa’s performance ratio, 5.34, we can speculate that his odds of winning are about 8.7 percent per tourney. If we want to calculate his odds of attaining, for example, three additional majors, we can plug these numbers into the binomial model to get the odds. In this case, Nadal has a 22.61 percent chance of finishing with precisely 17 titles.The table below summarizes the potential outcomes based on this model. The outside cells represent the probabilities of each player finishing his career with a particular number of championships. Nadal’s probabilities are listed in the rows on the right, while Federer’s are represented horizontally along the top. The cells in the center represent the joint probabilities of the varied individual outcomes. Cells in yellow represent the status quo — that Federer remains ahead — while the gray cells represent a tie, and the blue cells indicate Nadal passing Federer.The odds of Nadal finishing at precisely 16 titles and Federer at 17 are a little under 15 percent. That’s also the most probable of the individual scenarios. Overall, there’s about a 61 percent chance that Federer ends his career ahead of Nadal, and about a 17 percent chance they end in a tie.It looks like somewhat of a long shot for Nadal to pass Federer (close to a 22 percent chance), but if he were to have a strong summer and win two of the three majors remaining in 2014, he’d greatly improve his chances. Then again, failing to win even the French would be a serious blow — especially if Federer could pull off another win this year.This French Open, along with the remaining majors this year, will tell us a lot about who eventually ends up atop the leaderboard. The conversation as to who’s the greatest of all time doesn’t end there, of course. It probably starts there, though, and whoever of these two ends up on top is likely to hold that title for many years to come. Over the next few days, Rafael Nadal will attempt to win his ninth French Open and become only the third male player to achieve 14 major championships, tying Pete Sampras and moving within three of Roger Federer’s record of 17. He’d be the first to win a particular major nine times, and, at barely 28 years old, he’d be just shy of Federer’s pace in reaching the milestone (Federer won his 14th major at 27 years, 10 months).Federer, now 32, may or may not have another major in him. Tennis is a young man’s game — much more so than many other sports. In golf, for example, many players don’t win their first major until their 30s; since 2009, the PGA has seen 13 of 21 majors won by players 30 and older (and three were over 40). In football, quarterbacks have played well deep into their 30s — Peyton Manning (38) and Tom Brady (37) are still among the best in their sport.In tennis, however, many legends were done winning Grand Slam events by their mid-20s — Boris Becker’s last of six was at age 28. Mats Wilander won his seventh and final major at 24. John McEnroe (7) and Björn Borg (11) were done at 25. Even Jimmy Connors (8), famed for his longevity — he made his famous run to the semis at the U.S. Open in 1991 at age 39 — won his final major, the 1983 U.S. Open, at 31.The aging curve for men’s tennis does appear to have shifted in the past few years, with more 30-somethings on tour remaining in contention.1I gathered age data on the top 10 players by year and track their average age, going back as far as possible, to 1973. The ATP’s website provided me with birthdate data, and Tennis28.com tracks year-end rankings. There are currently two top 10 players in their 30s — Federer and David Ferrer, both 32. Their presence has helped skew the average age of a top 10 player to its highest point since the early 1970s. Although Federer’s presence in the top 10 is a reflection of his great career, Ferrer’s ranking is a bit of an anomaly. But he still hasn’t won a major, and if he dips from the top 10, the group’s average age will quickly move closer to the normal range.Connors hung around in the top 10 until he was 36, but he was done winning majors at 31. It may be possible to play at a top-10 level into one’s 30s, but the majors — with best-of-five set matches versus the best-of-three format on the typical tourney — more rigorously test not just the skill of the player, but also his endurance. Empirically speaking, players in their 20s still tend to win these events — since 2000, a player over 30 has won a major only four times: Andre Agassi twice (30 and 32), Sampras (31) and Federer (30).So with Rafa turning 28 on Tuesday, is he a sure thing to equal or surpass Federer’s 17 titles? How likely is Fed to win any more?By analyzing the full data set of champions by age during the Open era, starting at the French Open of 1968, we can show the ascent, plateau and drop-off in performance as players mature and decline. Building upon this, we can make some predictions about how Nadal and Federer will perform over the remainder of their careers.The chart below shows the distribution of major championships grouped by player age.2This data set reflects 184 events won by 47 different players. read more

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Ohio State wrestling tops Edinboro for the second year in a row

Redshirt sophomore Nathan Tomasello competes in a match against Arizona State on Nov. 13. Credit: Courtesy of OSUOne could have heard a pin drop in St. John Arena as redshirt sophomore Nate Tomasello started his match at 125 pounds. All eyes were on the national champion, and “pin” was exactly what he did to start the night.The Ohio State team (11-3, 7-2) picked up another win this year in its final dual meet in St. John, taking down Edinboro in a National Wrestling Coaches Association dual-series bout. With six individual victories, the Buckeyes battled their way to a hard-fought team win, 26-13.It was the second time in two seasons the Scarlet and Gray faced the Fighting Scots in a NWCA dual and the second time OSU came out on top.Tomasello earned his third pin of the year, while maintaining an unblemished record for the season. The Parma, Ohio, native remains one of two undefeated OSU wrestlers, along with sophomore Kyle Snyder.Tomasello hasn’t lost since January of last year.There was a surprise absence at 133 pounds for the Buckeyes, as senior Mike Manuche competed in place of redshirt senior Johnni DiJulius. Manuche went up against redshirt junior Anthony Rivera.In his 10th match of the year, Manuche struggled against Rivera, unable to secure any takedown or escape. Eventually, Rivera won 6-0, pulling Edinboro into striking distance, with OSU only up 6-3.Redshirt junior Micah Jordan quickly turned the tide for the Buckeyes, with a good performance against freshman Tyler Vath. Even though Jordan got caught in a bad position and had to sprawl and tumble away from a near fall, he would go on to pick up a 22-9 major decision.After noting that he needed to create more energy and open up earlier this week, Jordan seemed to fix the issues. He now has eight major decisions on the season, which leads the team.After an injury in sudden victory in the previous match for redshirt senior Hunter Stieber at the 149-pound weight class, redshirt freshman Cody Burcher re-entered the lineup. Burcher was the starter for OSU at the beginning of the season against Virginia.Burcher drew a tough opponent in freshman Patricio Lugo. Lugo is the 19th-ranked wrestler in the nation at 149 pounds. With a tight contest into the third, Burcher gained a 1-0 lead on an escape, before being taken down with little time left.Burcher scrambled with eight seconds left looking for an escape, but was unable to capitalize. Lugo went on to win 2-1. OSU coach Tom Ryan said he felt Burcher performed well overall, even with some issues earlier this week with making weight.“The door opened, and (Burcher wasn’t) quite ready to run through it,” Ryan said. “But, he gave a good effort overall.”Buckeye fans got a treat once again at 157 pounds, as redshirt freshman Jake Ryan took another match down to the wire, this time against redshirt sophomore Austin Matthews.A tight contest throughout, things came picked up near the end of the last period. After a takedown was thwarted by Matthews, it was initially ruled that two points went to Edinboro. However, after a video replay, the call was reversed, and the match came down to riding time, which gave Jake Ryan the 4-3 win.With the ball now in their court, the Buckeyes looked to increase their 13-6 team lead. Redshirt sophomore Bo Jordan was just the man for the job.After a shaky outing in the previous match, Bo Jordan started off in a bit of trouble, as his opponent, redshirt senior Casey Fuller, nearly got Bo Jordan’s shoulders down for a fall. However, Bo Jordan rolled out of danger and proceeded to control the rest of the bout.Midway through the second, the St. Paris, Ohio, product secured Fuller and earned the fall. That pin was his fifth of the year.“Last week I couldn’t get my opponent’s feet moving at all,” Bo Jordan said. “I really focused on, this week in practice of, getting guys feet moving.”The adjustment paid dividends for him.Up next at 174 pounds, freshman Myles Martin looked to continue his stellar rookie year. After securing the first takedown, the lead would remain firmly in his hands.After a few more takedowns, one more by Martin gave him a 14-4 major decision win. Martin now has a season win total of 24, which is ranks third on the team.Tom Ryan went to a different wrestler at 184 pounds than he did last week, turning to redshirt sophomore Dominic Prezzia. The absence of the usual competitor, Kenny Courts, should not raise any concerns about the redshirt senior’s status for the rest of the year, the coach said.“Kenny had something come up today,” Tom Ryan said.Prezzia made a valiant effort against fifth-ranked redshirt senior Vic Avery, but he was outmatched as the bout wore on. Avery won 19-7, while Prezzia fell to 13-10 on the year.After a strong outing in the previous match, senior Mark Martin had a much tougher go against senior Vince Pickett. With a team win seemingly in hand, Martin looked to earn another win for OSU to pad the team’s stats.Although he picked up a takedown in the first, Martin could not respond with any more scoring, and he was forced to defend for the rest of the match. Pickett earned an escape but failed to score again, giving Martin a 2-1 decision win.Redshirt junior Nick Tavanello was the last man out for the Buckeyes, and he faced redshirt freshman Billy Miller. The two Ohio natives clashed in a tough, grind-it-out bout.Tavanello struggled to create any separation or scoring chances and could not secure any of his numerous takedowns. Miller would go on to win 5-1.Even with the loss in the final match, OSU won with ease, 26-13.Although Tom Ryan had a smile on his face and was celebrating the NWCA dual-series victory as he made his way into the press conference, he noted what he felt his wrestlers seemed to need to change moving forward.“Fear is debilitating,” the coach said. “We gotta find a way to wrestle fearless.”Postseason play awaits the Buckeyes next, as they are set to head to Iowa City, Iowa, to compete in the Big Ten Championships. The event is scheduled to take place on March 5 and 6. read more

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